Explore the evidence
24 of 88 decisions · clear everything
Teacher quality is the largest within-school lever — 1 SD of teacher ≈ 0.10–0.15 SD/yr, worth more than ten fewer students — and credentials predict none of it. Select; don't workshop.
strong supportconf: highgc: lowTeacher quality — selection over credentials and workshops · teachers · ages 4–18 · structure
Accelerate ready kids: they keep pace with older classmates, bank a year, and show no social-emotional harm at 50. The gifted label itself does nothing; the content does.
moderate supportconf: highgc: mediumAcceleration and gifted programs — the label vs the content · grouping · ages 5–18 · structure
Neither acceleration mandates nor delay mandates work — readiness-matched placement does. Push everyone and the median falls; hold everyone back and the top falls.
mixedconf: highgc: lowAlgebra timing — acceleration mandates, delay mandates, and readiness-based placement · math · ages 11–18
Smaller classes buy real K-1 gains that fade on tests yet persist in attainment — at roughly triple tutoring's cost, and diluted to nothing when scaled fast.
mixedconf: highgc: lowClass-size reduction · class-size · ages 4–18 · structure
Feedback on the task helps modestly; feedback on the person backfires — a stable third of measured effects reverse. The famous 0.4–0.7 number has no computed source.
mixedconf: highgc: lowFeedback and formative assessment · feedback · ages 5–18 · method
At scale, pre-K doesn't durably raise test scores — Tennessee went negative — yet Boston shows real attainment gains beside a test-score zero. It buys trajectory, not ability.
mixedconf: highgc: lowPreschool at scale — Head Start, state pre-K, and what universal provision delivers · early-childhood · ages 4–5 · structure
Unallocated money is the worst buy in the database; the same dollars as No-Excuses charters buy +0.3–0.4 SD/yr — and the average charter is a precise null.
mixedconf: highgc: lowSchool spending, charters, and what school-level choices actually move outcomes · school-structure · ages 4–18 · structure
Starting school older mostly manufactures an age-at-test artifact: the IQ effect collapses to ~−0.07 once identified. Real residues: less hyperactivity, unchanged attainment.
mixedconf: highgc: lowSchool starting age, relative age, and academic redshirting · early-childhood · ages 4–7 · structure
Teaching movement teaches movement: the skills improve, but transfer to cognition, achievement, or lifelong activity is near zero in the best trials.
no effectconf: highgc: mediumDoes teaching movement transfer to cognition, achievement, or lifelong activity? · physical-development · ages 4–18
Brain training improves the trained task and nothing else: far transfer to intelligence or achievement is 0.001 against active controls.
no effectconf: highgc: lowDoes working-memory or brain training transfer to intelligence and achievement? · transfer · ages 4–18 · debunked
Later bells buy adolescents 40+ measured minutes of sleep — the best-identified positive effect in the archive; the achievement payoff is real but far smaller.
strong supportconf: mediumgc: lowDo later school start times increase adolescent sleep, and does that raise achievement? · health · ages 11–18 · input
Selective CTE high schools raise male graduation 8-10pp and early-career earnings 17-35% on lottery and cutoff designs; test scores, degrees, and every outcome for girls are flat.
moderate supportconf: mediumgc: lowDo career and technical education tracks help students — and which students? · practical · ages 14–18
Immersion costs nothing in English and buys a little — a lottery puts English reading 0.13-0.22 SD ahead by grades 5 and 8 — but no lottery has ever measured how much of the second language students actually learn.
moderate supportconf: mediumgc: lowDoes dual-language immersion work, and is the gain in the second language or in English? · foreign-language · ages 4–18
A missed day costs little (~0.005 SD); interventions reliably buy days back cheaply, but nobody has shown the recovered days move achievement.
mixedconf: mediumgc: mediumChronic absenteeism — does raising attendance raise achievement? · time · ages 4–18 · input
Life-skills courses reliably teach the content and rarely change the conduct; behaviour moves only where instruction sits close in time to the decision, and driver education is worse than nothing.
mixedconf: mediumgc: lowDo life-skills courses — money, cooking, driving, health — change what students actually do? · practical · ages 6–18
Civics teaching buys civic knowledge (d = 0.49) that fades to the control mean in two years and moves neither attitudes nor validated turnout; what moves voting is school quality and noncognitive skill.
mixedconf: mediumgc: lowDoes civic education produce civic knowledge, and does civic knowledge produce civic behaviour? · history-civics · ages 5–18
Early specialization predicts junior success; later starts plus other sports predict adult world-class. Selecting on junior results selects the wrong athletes.
mixedconf: mediumgc: mediumEarly sport specialization, talent selection, and the relative age effect · sport · ages 6–18
The received wisdom that retention is harmful was two measurement errors, not a finding. Fix them and the achievement effect is zero — but the grade at which you hold a child back decides everything.
mixedconf: mediumgc: lowGrade retention — holding a child back versus promoting, and test-based promotion policies · retention · ages 5–18 · structure
Classroom order is causally worth a great deal — one disruptive peer costs classmates 3% of adult earnings — yet no branded behaviour programme reliably delivers it and exclusion makes things worse.
mixedconf: mediumgc: lowHow should a school run its classrooms and its discipline system? · behavior · ages 4–18 · structure
Perry and Abecedarian: n=123 and n=111, IQ gains gone by adolescence, attainment effects real but multiplicity-fragile. Too thin to carry the policy built on them.
mixedconf: mediumgc: lowPerry Preschool and Abecedarian — what the famous studies actually establish · early-childhood · ages 4–5 · structure
What parents are asked to DO is the whole effect: tutoring a skill d≈1.15, listening to reading 0.51, reading aloud ~0.18 — same parent, same child. All deflate under better designs.
mixedconf: mediumgc: mediumThe parent as instructor — what survives when the person teaching is the person who raised the child · homeschool · ages 4–18 · method
School exercise programs don't raise achievement: four of the five largest RCTs are null, and more dose doesn't rescue it. Exercise for health, not for grades.
no effectconf: mediumgc: lowPhysical activity as an input — dose, fitness, and school outcomes · health · ages 4–18 · input
No study of homeschooling has a counterfactual — the famous percentile claims are selection all the way down. The honest answer: nobody knows.
insufficientconf: lowgc: highDoes homeschooling raise achievement and attainment, or does it select the children who would have done well anyway? · homeschool · ages 5–18 · structure
Homeschoolers get plenty of social contact but measurably fewer, closer peer ties; whether that helps or harms has never been causally tested.
insufficientconf: lowgc: highHomeschool socialisation — the most-asked question, and the least answerable one · homeschool · ages 6–18 · structure
The URL is the state — any view you build here is a permalink you can hand to someone mid-argument.