A Kindergarten Lottery Evaluation of Core Knowledge Charter Schools
Grissmer, D., Buddin, R., Berends, M., Willingham, D., et al. · 2023
grade Bnatural-experimentindependentunreplicatednumbers spot-checked
Sample
~2,300 applicants / 14 lotteries / 9 schools
Population
~2,300 Colorado kindergarten-lottery applicants; mostly middle-income districts + one low-income CK charter.
Design
Lottery-based (grade-A identification) evaluation of oversubscribed Core Knowledge (E.D. Hirsch content-rich curriculum) charters. Outcomes = grade 3-6 STATE standardized reading (independent measures), reflecting cumulative multi-year schooling. Single, not-yet-peer-reviewed working paper; whole-school bundle.
Key findings
The strongest causal support for the build-broad-knowledge hypothesis: random assignment to content-rich schooling raised grade 3-6 reading on INDEPENDENT state tests by ITT 0.24 / TOT 0.47 SD (up to ITT 0.94 at a low-income CK charter). Because effects are on standardized measures and lottery-identified, they resist both measure-inflation and genetic-confound critiques - but rest on a single unreplicated working paper of a whole-school bundle, so the knowledge-specific share is unisolated.
Genetic confound
Largely addressed by lottery randomization (winners vs losers balanced on genes/family selection) - its central strength vs the correlational knowledge literature.
Replication notes
Not yet replicated or peer-reviewed; complements Kim MORE content-literacy RCT (ES~0.18, near>far transfer). Single-study => caps confidence at medium.
DOI / URL
Effects
| Outcome | Metric | Value | Measure | Timing | Vs | Horizon | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grade 3-6 Reading/ELA (main sample) | ITT / TOT SD | 0.24 / 0.47 (sig at each grade) | standardized | 2yr+ follow-up | business-as-usual | over-2yr | domain-skill |
| ELA - low-income-district CK charter | ITT / TOT SD | 0.94 / 1.30 | standardized | 2yr+ follow-up | business-as-usual | over-2yr | domain-skill |
Cited by
- Background knowledge and vocabulary as drivers of reading comprehensionmoderate supportconf: mediumgc: low
- Curriculum choice as a school-level levermixedconf: highgc: low
- Should history be built on content knowledge or on generic historical-thinking skills?moderate supportconf: mediumgc: low