The Effects of Enrolling in Oversubscribed Prekindergarten Programs Through Third Grade
Weiland, C., et al. · 2020
grade Bnatural-experimentindependentreplicated
Sample
3,182 lottery applicants
Population
Boston public preschool lottery applicants, followed to grade 3.
Design
Lottery-based evaluation of the same program later studied by Gray-Lobe et al., at the grade-3 horizon.
Key findings
An independent lottery-based null for Boston pre-K at grade 3 on test scores, retention and special education — establishing that the later attainment gains occur alongside a genuinely flat academic trajectory, not a hidden one.
Counterfactual
Almost all control children were in centre-based care of some kind.
Genetic confound
Lottery randomisation.
Replication notes
Independently confirms the test-score null later found across grades 3-10 by Gray-Lobe et al. (2023), and confirms the substitution story (controls were already in centre care).
DOI / URL
Effects
| Outcome | Metric | Value | Measure | Timing | Vs | Horizon | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grade-3 test scores | effect | NULL | standardized | grade-3 | active-alternative | over-2yr | domain-skill |
| Grade retention and special education | effect | NULL | mixed | grade-3 | active-alternative | over-2yr | attainment |
Cited by
- Preschool at scale — Head Start, state pre-K, and what universal provision deliversmixedconf: highgc: low