The Effects of Musical Training on Child Development: a Randomized Trial of El Sistema in Venezuela
Alemán X, Duryea S, Guerra NG, McEwan PJ, Muñoz R, Stampini M, Williamson AA · 2017
grade Arctindependentunreplicatednumbers spot-checked
Sample
2,914 children (2,529 guardians as randomisation clusters) across 16 oversubscribed music centres
Population
Venezuelan children aged 6-14 applying to El Sistema orchestra centres, many exposed to community violence; follow-up at one year
Design
A lottery over admission dates - early admission September 2012 versus delayed admission September 2013 - at 16 oversubscribed centres, which is the cleanest identification strategy available for a voluntary programme and the one this archive grades highest. Registered as NCT02369315 and funded by the Inter-American Development Bank rather than by the programme. Grade A: large, randomised, independently evaluated, with an intention-to-treat analysis and a pre-specified family-wise error correction. The material limitation is that all outcomes are self- or guardian-reported scales, and take-up was partial (69% then 58% of the treatment group against 15% then 14% of controls; average difference 0.98 semesters).
Key findings
The most decision-relevant result in the music cluster, because it is a large lottery and because of WHERE the effects land. After one year the intention-to-treat effects on child-reported self-control (+0.095 SD, 90% CI 0.013-0.177) and behavioural difficulties (-0.081 SD, 90% CI -0.160 to -0.003) are significant at the 10% level after family-wise correction, and there are NO significant full-sample effects on aggression, prosocial behaviour, or COGNITIVE skills. The effects concentrate in vulnerable subgroups: boys exposed to violence show self-control +0.205 (0.039-0.370), aggression -0.242 (-0.450 to -0.034) and behavioural difficulties -0.253 (-0.415 to -0.092); children of less-educated mothers show self-control +0.177; younger children +0.134. The authors' own explanation of the SES gradient is instructive - it "may reflect the ability of more-educated mothers to finance alternative activities", i.e. the counterfactual matters more than the treatment.
Genetic confound
Low. Randomised admission date within an oversubscribed applicant pool means both arms self-selected equally into wanting music; genotype cannot differ between arms.
Replication notes
Unreplicated. No other lottery-based evaluation of El Sistema or a comparable large-scale music programme exists; Sistema Scotland, In Harmony and Musical Futures have non-randomised evaluations only. Its cognitive null is consistent with Sala & Gobet (2020) and with the EEF First Thing Music trial; its non-cognitive positives are consistent in direction with the Houston arts RCT's behaviour findings, though both are fragile.
Effects
| Outcome | Metric | Value | Measure | Timing | Vs | Horizon | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Self-control (child-reported), full sample, intention-to-treat | standard deviations | +0.095 (90% CI 0.013-0.177), p = .056 after k-familywise error control | standardized | 1 year after admission | business-as-usual | 1-2yr | non-cognitive |
| Behavioural difficulties (child-reported), full sample | standard deviations | -0.081 (90% CI -0.160 to -0.003), p = .088 | standardized | 1 year | business-as-usual | 1-2yr | behaviour |
| Cognitive skills, prosocial behaviour and aggression, full sample | standard deviations | no significant effects on cognitive skills, prosocial behaviour, connections or aggression in the full sample. The authors attribute the cognitive null partly to the one-year horizon and to the fact that "many children were only exposed to introductory training in a single instrument." | standardized | 1 year | business-as-usual | 1-2yr | far-transfer |
| Boys exposed to violence at baseline (n approx. 443) | standard deviations | self-control +0.205 (0.039-0.370, p = .042); aggressive behaviour -0.242 (-0.450 to -0.034, p = .056); behavioural difficulties -0.253 (-0.415 to -0.092, p = .01) | standardized | 1 year | business-as-usual | 1-2yr | behaviour |
| Children of less-educated mothers | standard deviations | self-control +0.177 (0.057-0.298, p = .016); behavioural difficulties -0.134 (-0.253 to -0.016, p = .062). The authors read the gradient as reflecting the alternative activities better-off families can buy. | standardized | 1 year | business-as-usual | 1-2yr | non-cognitive |
| Take-up | participation rates | treatment 69% first semester, 58% second, 56% both; control 15%, 14%, 11%. Average treatment-control difference 0.98 semesters (p < .001). Follow-up completion 74.5% treatment, 77.3% control. | standardized | 1 year | business-as-usual | 1-2yr | behaviour |
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