Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth Turnout
Holbein JB, Hillygus DS · 2016
grade Bnatural-experimentindependentunclear
Sample
2000-2012 Current Population Survey; plus a Florida date-of-birth regression discontinuity
Population
US citizens aged 18-24 in states adopting preregistration laws; Florida youth around a date-of-birth cutoff.
Design
Difference-in-differences and lag models on the 2000-2012 CPS, plus a regression discontinuity in Florida exploiting date of birth to vary length of exposure to preregistration. Both approaches find preregistration raises turnout, with similar effectiveness across electorate subgroups. Methodologically this is a strong pair of designs and it is by some distance the best-evidenced lever on YOUTH turnout.
Key findings
Preregistration laws - allowing 16 and 17 year olds to register before they are eligible to vote - increase youth voter turnout, in both the difference-in-differences and the Florida discontinuity, with roughly equal effectiveness across subgroups. Reported here because the topic author will want it: when nothing in the civics curriculum moves turnout, the thing that does is administrative.
Genetic confound
Not assessed in detail; see exclusion note.
Replication notes
Not assessed - the paper was set aside before an adversarial pass.
DOI / URL
10.1111/ajps.12177
Effects
| Outcome | Metric | Value | Measure | Timing | Vs | Horizon | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youth voter turnout | DiD and regression discontinuity | preregistration increases turnout; effect similar across subgroups | self-report (CPS) and administrative (Florida) | ages 18-24 | business-as-usual | over-2yr | behaviour |