The Evidence on Teaching

Meaningful Differences in the Everyday Experience of Young American Children (the '30 million word gap'), with later re-examinations

Hart, B., & Risley, T. R.; re-examined by Sperry, Sperry & Miller (2018) and Gilkerson et al. (2017) · 1995

grade Dlongitudinalindependentfailednumbers spot-checked
Sample
42 families observed roughly one hour per month
Population
Kansas families across SES strata.
Design
DOI CORRECTION NEEDED — the previously recorded DOI resolved to Sperry et al. (2019), which is a CRITIQUE of this work rather than the work itself. Hart & Risley 1995 is a Brookes Publishing book and has no journal DOI. The famous 30-million figure is EXTRAPOLATED from ~1 hour of monthly observation of 42 non-randomly selected families, then projected to age 3-4.
Key findings
One of the most policy-influential findings in early childhood, and among the weakest evidence in this database: 42 families, hourly sampling, an extrapolated headline number roughly 7x too large on modern all-day recording, zero genetic control, and no intervention arm. It should not be cited as a causal basis for anything.
Counterfactual
None — purely observational SES contrast with no intervention arm and no genetic control.
Genetic confound
SEVERE: parental vocabulary and child language ability are both heritable, and there is no genetic control whatsoever. The correlation cannot support the causal claim built on it.
Replication notes
The headline figure is ~7x overstated on better measurement (Gilkerson 2017). Sperry et al. (2018) is a re-examination, not a clean refutation — it shows the accounting is sensitive to who counts as a speaker, and a Golinkoff et al. rebuttal exists. Grade D on both sides.
DOI / URL
(no verified identifier — see design_notes)

Effects

OutcomeMetricValueMeasureTimingVsHorizonClass
Adult words heard per hour, professional vs welfare familieswords/hr~2,153 vs ~616researcher-designedend-of-treatmentnonenot-applicabledomain-skill
Cumulative word gap by age 3-4 (EXTRAPOLATED, not measured)cumulative words~30 millionresearcher-designedend-of-treatmentnonenot-applicabledomain-skill
Gilkerson et al. (2017) LENA re-estimatecumulative words~4 million (329 families, 3,213 all-day recordings) — roughly 7x smallermixedend-of-treatmentnonenot-applicabledomain-skill
Sperry et al. (2018) re-examinationSES gapcounting multiple caregivers and bystander talk substantially changes the accounting; large WITHIN-stratum variationresearcher-designedend-of-treatmentnonenot-applicabledomain-skill

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