The Evidence on Teaching

Identifying Effective Teachers Using Performance on the Job (the selection-over-credentials strategy)

Gordon, R., Kane, T. J., & Staiger, D. O. · 2006

grade Creviewindependentunreplicated
Sample
~150,000 LAUSD students/yr
Population
US teacher labor market.
Design
The founding document of selection-over-credentials.
Key findings
Early on-the-job performance predicts future effectiveness; paper credentials don't. Hire broadly (including uncertified candidates), evaluate seriously for two years, retain selectively.
Genetic confound
Within-school sorting can inflate quartile persistence; read the gap as approximate.
Replication notes
The strategy (open entry, judge on early performance, gate tenure) underlies subsequent district reforms.

Effects

OutcomeMetricValueMeasureTimingVsHorizonClass
Top vs bottom quartile of years-1-2 measured performancepercentiles10-point gap in year-3 student outcomes — twice the class-size effect at a fraction of the coststandardizedyear 3nonenot-applicabledomain-skill
Certification statusprediction~nullstandardizedn/anonenot-applicabledomain-skill

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