The long-run effects of reducing early school tracking
Canaan S · 2020
grade Bnatural-experimentindependentreplicated
Sample
French cohorts born around the 1 January 1966 birth-date cutoff
Population
French adults followed to ages 40-45.
Design
The 1977-78 French reform replaced rigid assignment to general versus vocational tracks at age 11 with achievement-based classroom grouping and tracking two years later. Individuals born before 1 January 1966 faced the old system, those born after the new one — a sharp birth-date discontinuity.
Key findings
Softening rigid tracking at age 11 raised attainment and raised wages 4.7% at ages 40-45, with the gain concentrated in low-SES individuals. Note the treatment: the reform did not abolish grouping, it delayed the irreversible track decision by two years and made it achievement-based — permeability, not homogenisation.
Genetic confound
Birth-date cutoff assignment; family genotype cannot jump at 1 January 1966.
Replication notes
Third national reform (after Sweden and Finland) pointing the same way; the author's later work finds no effect on mortality-linked health behaviours.
Effects
| Outcome | Metric | Value | Measure | Timing | Vs | Horizon | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wages at ages 40-45 | % | +4.7%, with the strongest effects among individuals from low socioeconomic backgrounds | standardized | ages 40-45 | business-as-usual | adulthood | attainment |
| Educational attainment | effect | increased | standardized | long-run | business-as-usual | adulthood | attainment |
Cited by
- Ability grouping and tracking — four practices, four verdictsmoderate supportconf: highgc: low