The Evidence on Teaching

Assessment and Classroom Learning / Inside the Black Box

Black, P., & Wiliam, D. · 1998

grade Dreviewdeveloper-ledfailed
Sample
Narrative review (~250 studies)
Population
K-12 and higher-ed classroom studies.
Design
Contains NO computed meta-analysis. The famous 0.4-0.7 range appears only in the Phi Delta Kappan essay/pamphlet as 'typical effect sizes' with no derivation given anywhere (Bennett 2011).
Key findings
The advocacy landmark that launched the global formative-assessment movement — whose headline number has no source. The conceptual contribution (five FA strategies) is real; the quantitative claim is 'the educational equivalent of urban legend' (Bennett). The most-cited number in assessment policy has no causal warrant.
Genetic confound
N/A (narrative review); underlying quasi-experiments rarely controlled ability composition.
Replication notes
The 0.4-0.7 has NEVER been reproduced: the only computed meta gives 0.20; the developer's own at-scale RCT gives 0.09-0.10.
DOI / URL
10.1080/0969595980050102

Effects

OutcomeMetricValueMeasureTimingVsHorizonClass
Formative assessment on achievement (claimed)d (asserted, never computed)0.4-0.7unknownend-of-treatmentunclearend-of-treatmentdomain-skill

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